House prices rose in August to an average of £165,967, following a base rate cut at the beginning of the month, says Halifax. However, annual price inflation is still falling, according to the nation’s largest mortgage lender. Prices rose by 1.6 per cent over the month, which is a dramatic rise on July's figure of 0.4 per cent. This represents the biggest month-on-month gain in the last 12 months.
Market activity also picked up during August, with the number of mortgages offered to buyers continuing to increase month-on-month. According to the latest Bank of England figures, when seasonally adjusted, the number of loans agreed during the month was 26 per cent higher than in November last year.
Martin Ellis, Halifax's chief economist, said, ‘This pick-up in monthly house price inflation is consistent with the continuing upward trend in market activity in recent months and the previous pattern of house price movements when the Bank of England begins to reduce interest rates,’ he said.
But despite the increase in prices and activity, said Ellis, properties were worth only 2.5 per cent more than in August 2004. This marks a significant downward trend in underlying price inflation over the past year from an annual rate of 21.3 per cent last August.
While in the first eight months of 2004 prices increased by 12.5 per cent, over the same period this year they were up just 2.1 per cent.
Mr Ellis said prices were unlikely to surge in the near future, but the growth in the UK economy and earnings, and high levels of employment all supported housing demand.
"The ongoing growth of the UK economy, robust earnings growth and historically high levels of employment all underpin the housing market," he said.
"The slowdown in economic growth in 2005 and the high level of house prices in relation to average earnings will, however, continue to curb housing demand and should prevent a renewed surge in house prices."
Halifax's figures contrast with those published by other housing market commentators. Nationwide building society, for example, said house prices had fallen by 0.2 per cent over the month, while Hometrack recorded a 0.1 per cent fall.
Howard Archer, chief UK economist at consultancy Global Insight, said: "The 1.6 per cent month-on-month jump in house prices in August reported by the Halifax is a real surprise.
"However, there are often significant fluctuations in house prices on a monthly basis and we do not believe that it is a sign that house prices are about to start moving back up strongly."
"It is clearly still very much a buyers' market, as the supply-demand balance is currently slanted markedly in their favour. Consequently, many sellers are reported to have become more realistic in their pricing."
A survey of consumers carried out by Nationwide suggested that confidence in the housing market has also been boosted by the base rate cut.
It said that while consumers were less certain about the current economic situation than they were in July, with the number who thought there were plenty of jobs currently available falling, confidence about the future had grown.
In August, consumers forecast that house prices would rise by 2.9 per cent over the next six months, compared with a forecast of 2 per cent in July.
"The figures illustrate that whilst consumers are uncertain about the current economic situation, they have become more positive about how the future will unfold," said Nationwide's executive director, Stuart Bernau.
"August's rate cut appears to have boosted sentiment and it will be interesting to see how they behave over the coming months."
While the rate cut appears to have boosted confidence in the housing market, it has not yet had an impact on the cost of servicing a mortgage, according to figures from mortgage lender the Woolwich.
It said that among Barclays and Woolwich's current account customers mortgage repayments accounted for 18.7 per cent of a homeowner's disposable income in August, with the average monthly mortgage repayment coming in at £512.
These figure are actually slightly higher than in July when repayments averaged £502 and accounted for 18.4 per cent of income.
Andy Gray, head of mortgages for the Woolwich, said the figures showed that many customers had not benefited immediately from August's rate cut.
"Following the cut in interest rates at the beginning of August most variable rates were cut at the beginning of September and many people are on fixed rates which will not change, and therefore will not have impacted the August data."
"Also our own research indicates that July/August is the most popular time for people taking out new mortgages, and so there are a disproportionate number of people coming to the end of their existing term product.
"Many either go onto a standard variable rate or remortgage with products that are currently at higher rates than when they took out their original loan, or last remortgaged. This leads to higher payments and hence pushes the mortgage affordability ratio upwards."
Six months since the Chancellor announced a doubling in the 0 per cent Stamp Duty threshold from £60,000 to £120,000, new figures from Nethouseprices.com reveal dramatic movement in the lower end of the property market as a result.
In the period April – June 2005, sales of properties priced from £100,000* to £120,000 rocketed to 23,811 compared to sales of 15,492 in the previous quarter (January to March). Taken against the same quarter in 2004 this is a rise in sales nationally of 8,319 in this price bracket.
Not surprisingly, sales in the bracket of £120,001 to £150,000 where Stamp Duty is levied at 1 per cent have been more in tune with market. There were 9,284 more properties sold in April to June than in January to March, but 1,829 less than in the same quarter in 2004. The average price for a house in England and Wales is currently £178,899.
Catherine Brassington, Managing Director of Nethouseprices.com comments: “It is clear that the increase in the Stamp Duty threshold has fired up the lower end of the market significantly, and as a result it is the fastest growing area of the property market. These changes, however, have not made any difference at all to the middle market (£120,001 - £250,000) which accounts for nearly three quarters of all sales nationwide.”